Water FractalTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
decks
8
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55
27-22-6
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295
· median 1260
· range 1100–1568
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -4.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.3% | -6.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
